A Framework Using Open-Source Software for Land Use Prediction and Climate Data Time Series Analysis in a Protected Area of Portugal: Alvão Natural Park

Changes in land use and cover (LULC) protected areas can lead to an ecological imbalance these territories. Temporal monitoring predictive modeling are valuable tools for making decisions about conserving planning actions reduce the pressure caused by activities such as agriculture. This study accordingly developed LULC analysis framework based on open-source software (QGIS R language) methodology using artificial neural networks Alvão Natural Park (PNA), a area northern Portugal. The results show that 2041, Agriculture Open Space/Non-vegetation classes will evidence greatest decrease, while Forest Bushes have expanded most. Spatially, west northeast of experience most significant changes. relationship with data from climate model HadGEM3-GC31-LL (CMIP6) utilizing scenarios RCP 4.5 8.5 demonstrates how through period 2041–2060 there is tendency increased precipitation, which when combined dynamics retraction agriculture, favors advancement natural bushes forest; however, subsequent (2061–2080) projects decrease precipitation volumes increase minimum maximum temperatures, defining new pattern extension drought being concentrated short year, may result greater recurrence extreme events, prolonged droughts water shortages fires.